WOT: buying a new 901, real estate in San Diego - buy or rent? Options

[siverson]

Way, way, off topic, but I'm about to make a pretty big decision (for me), and I'll always listen to free advice (may not follow it though... (IMG:style_emoticons/default/smile.gif) ). Anyways, I'm about to buy condo #901 (<-- only 914 tie in in this entire thread!) in a building in downtown San Diego.

It's expensive. I can afford the payments on a 30y fixed and have 20% down, but I'd hate to see my 20% down payment go poof if the real estate market crashes. And we're due for a crash - it's been gaining 20%+ PER YEAR for the past several years.

What's your crystal ball say? Buy now, or continue to rent and then buy when it all comes crashing down?

-Steve

[Part Pricer]

I was reading an interesting article the other day. I can't remember where I read it. But, let me paraphrase anyway.

I believe it was Goldman that reported that the current real estate market in the U.S. is overvalued by at least 10%. There are certain areas of the country where that number is even higher. Where I live, and probably where you are, the number is even higher.

They are predicting that when bottom falls out of the real estate market this time, it will be a hard hit. They are predicting that the overvaluation will disappear overnight. Then, the erosion of actual values will be significant. One of the reasons that they mention for this is that the Fed has no way that they would be able to prop up the market since the the interest rates are already too low.

There will be a hit. The question becomes, "When?"

If I could answer that, I wouldn't have to work. The Goldman report says sometime in 2005 or 2006.